Part II · Chapter 27
27. Hypothesis generation
Major question
Can AI help me discover explanations I have not considered?
Description
Good inquiry requires competing explanations. Beautiful destinations might perform better because beauty causes demand, because wealth finances beauty, because regulation protects both quality and value, or because a third factor produces both outcomes.
Generate at least eight competing hypotheses explaining why beautiful destinations might display stronger economic performance. Include direct causation, reverse causation, common causes, selection effects, measurement effects, and contextual moderation. For each hypothesis, state one observable implication that distinguishes it from the others.
Expected impact
Generating hypotheses changes the task: the initial proposition is no longer to be confirmed; it becomes one candidate among others to discriminate.
What else could explain what I think I am observing?